Thursday, September 16, 2010

Some Trivia:
Today is the first day in the last 10 where the hourly average of the Tick has been below zero.
My guess
So the pivot at 32 looks to be the tell
So to avoid bias, which seems to be getting in my way; if we open above Yestercenter, and stay above it, VWAP is going up,I will look for the first good long signal for a test of 1.) overnight highs, and 2.) Yesterhigh and beyond. If that fails, and I get a strong short signal, I will look for a test of Yestercenter, then Yesterlow and beyond.
This looks messy, it's just to show the levels overlaid onto the boxes....the levels (dashed lines) were drawn yesterday, see how they jive with the box formed this morning.
Support/Resistance

Thursday: PPI & Jobless claims

Another perfect box this morning, yellow line at 27.25 is YesterCenter, which combined with thee red 200MA and split box, will likely be supportive in the opening joust. Gap fill and /or test of overnight high/low are always the highest percentage possibility. Gap fill is Yesterhigh, which is basically a huge swing high, June's....which should be resistive.37.75 is in the way, and a possible barrier.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Might be pushing it to call this a Naz Wedgie...but it targets to your 20, Suhail  :)
Wedgie take 2
Not an ideal entry.
Not being able to punch thru YesterHigh, the program *usually* is that we head towards YesterCenter to find buyers either there, or along the way.
ES has a Wedgie
**forgot to post this, so it's late, and apparently invalidated**  
the swing high that formed the earlier triangle wasn't exceeded, so we make the triangle bigger
10:30 reversal
Triangle bottom has been violated since I started writing; and although their has been a serious breach of etiquette recently around leaving gaps unfilled to the downside, there should be an attempt to fill this one. A 3 range bar close over 18.75 will point to a run for yesterday's close at 23.5, which also coincides roughly with the downtrendline. YesterCenter and The Pivot are in the way at 23, so should this occur, I will be looking to short near the projected high of the 3 range bar that comes within range of 23-24. If a bottom test of the triangle is the best they can do, same gig on the range bar topping around 18.75. Depends on momo/price action.
We are opening below Yestercenter and VWAP, so the general inclination is to test Yesterlow at 1909.75. 1903 is the 127 fib beyond that. Watch your box levels. If there is koo-koo buying, and we bust thru the triangle downtrend line, look for 28.75....and the ensuing box levels to the upside.

Wednesday: Paradox and Infinity

Wake up this morning to find another lovely, well defined box to layout levels from. To draw the box, you search for two tests each of swing highs and lows, take the lower high of the upper end, and the higher low of the bottom end, and *presto* you have your box. General targets are a double down or up, the midpoints are useful too, as are their midpoints, if there's enough room. Scan multiple time frames/tick charts, range charts until one pops out at you. This one happens to be contained within a nice descending triangle...which is not a bullish pattern, unless the downtrendline is broken to the upside. It's usual measurement is double the height of the vertical leg...you can draw a parallelogram as well to create a channel, which won't measure as far as the triangle...price action here can tell you if this is going to pan out into a triangle-target, or a big ol' bull flag.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

So it looks like the Bulls on Parade scenario panned out. I'm done for the day; 32.25 is box top extension, top of channel, 1.618 exstension on yesterday's range and pretty overbought according to my indicators...but you know what they say about "overbought"...they can keep on buying. My guess is 32.75 is it....they may test it again in 15, then the next obvious downside is yesterday's high.