out @ 82.75  +17.25.. worth the wait.  :)

I'm done.

ok, so now expecting a bounce around here

Vix and Ad Line.
Lots of room for movement within today's range.

Tho still chopping around, this is looking like it's going to shift down; if it stays under 95.75, then 92.5 will be thie signal. The real bone of contention is yesterday's high at 94.75; losing it clearly, price will generally head for yesterday's center at 82.5. I'm guessing we'll get a bounce around 88-90 for 5 points or so to test yesterday's high, before moving lower to the 83 zone. A bounce at 88 *could* lead to a run back up to toaday's high.

Trade Management:

So now we need a 3Range Bar close below 93 to create a red box, and indicate a possible trend change. One red box does not a trend-change make...it takes 3, so bounces and chop are possible in the first two red boxes. This is true for any time frame/range bar setting. No w since the current 3 RB projected low is not below 93, it can close low, and rise again into some chop The red MA is the 13, where you get a typical bounce into a lower high; since we've already had a lower high with the previous range bar, the 13 may not be supportive, and the blue 34 is the next stop. The fact that the lower high bar is red is a good sign, it is keyed to the MACD signal Line (hidden), which has turned south.

To quote myself from this morning, pre-market," not only can the trendline break around 82 be tested, we could go higher to kiss the underside of the trendline...which would be a double top". So if I get stopped on this with new highs, I will be in disbelief mode, as this points to a 3 day bull flag, pointing to another huge move upwards....and done for the day.
Note to self: you missed a 30 point run to the double top.
Counter note to self: Can't go long after a major trendline break, and serious support violated...can only bang at it, take small profits until the move you suspect is going to happen, happens.

double top

 

so it looks like they went for the kiss of the underside of the trendline

target is 67.25 for now, need a 3 range bar close under 79.25 to confirm

2 strikes in a row, time out for news.

lets try again, little dicey before news in ten minutes

First Day of Fall....(pun intended)

The Fat Lady has sung, and I think the Market is Toast. What I think doesn't matter; but what I see is a 4 week up-trendline handily broken. Tuesday was a NR7 on the dailies, at the Top;  we are opening below yesterdays low as I type, close to a 15 point gap, which is a fromula for a possible trend day. They didn't like durable goods at 8:30...in this "environment" do you think they are going to like new home sales at 10:00? Probably not...and how did the "environment" go from happy to not happy so quick? They said the recession was over last year. C'mon bulls...this is a buying opportunity.
Pardon the cynicism...there very well may be bulls out there that believe exactly that, not only can the trendline break around 82 be tested, we could go higher to kiss the underside of the trendline...which would be a double top, or possible new high.
Back to today: A trend day should kick off with heavy selling...establish a temporary swing low mid morning...make a try for some kind of a swing high, then return to more selling with a close at the lows. If I were to guess, I'd say Yesterday's Lows will be it to the upside...but if not....the 77-82 zone would be next, and negate a trend day pretty much.
1965 is pretty much "desert center", in the middle between the two closest volume value areas of 1977 and 1953. We've already done a standard range move for the day with the overnight session, again a trend day will leave average true range in the dust...if not, we'll have a range of some sort.

Listen

Out at 76.25,   +7...done for the day. Trend Line test below likely still, but here is where they can start the chopping process.

Another shot, target 75 ish

Out at 79.50     +14.5

now my guess is this will go deeper to 70.5 to test the Big Trendline

Lets try that again.
Target is 74.5

Last Day of Summer: Turn out the Lights

Well..., relating back to my last post last week, ....I've heard the Fat Lady Sing; it was The Doors, "When the Music's Over". Poignant that it's on the Equinox....maybe that points to that there is indeed balance.

Musical Chairs

...or, "it ain't over till the fat lady sings".

I'm going to take a little break/long weekend from trading to get my head clear. I've been wanting to rant, or whine, the last couple days...actually the last few weeks, about what I believe to be Market Manipulation. At the risk of sounding like I'm into some weird conspiracy theory, in over ten years, I haven't seen this kind of bizarre behavior since the Bush administration, and just before The Crash. The economy is in the toilet, news is repeatedly poor, unemployment is hideously high....just about all the independent business owners I know are still struggling mightily...times are really really hard. The Market is screaming higher; traditional patterns that have worked for years get gleefully broken/disrespected, 75% of volume is said to be controlled by machines....charts are repeatedly painted on low volume after hours..it all smells fishy to me. Yesterday, for example...we are ridiculously overbought....every indicator/indication I had going yesterday was for the market to break lower. The AD Line was staying negative, averaging -700...the breadth was 2.5 to 1 negative...net selling on the tick for the first time in 10 days...extreme highs at important resistance....major trendline break, and the end of the day, when most traders have cleaned their desks and headed home, 'they' run it up to new highs. They say it takes too much money to manipulate the Market. It actually takes very little for after hours trade, where the next day's seed can be planted. I'm beginning to think that thru collusion amongst brokerage houses, the Plunge Protection Team, high frequency trading, the Rockafellers, the Illuminati, even another country like China, the middle east, whatever/wherever.... can influence the Market.

I consider myself a decent trader.
A really good trader would say, "So what? Get on board. Lose your attitude. Trade what you see, not what you think. Be nimble. Be flexible."
All traders biggest challenge is exactly that concept; what makes it difficult is that we are hardwired to behave in accordance with the way we think and believe. This means it's always going to be a game of musical chairs, and as far as a top or bottom being put in, it's when the fat lady sings, and no sooner.
So I'm gonna take a little break, and instead of pointing my finger at the Market, I'm going to point it at myself, and focus on being ok with running merrily around the circle of chairs, keeping an eye on the one I'm gonna hit when it's time to sit down, and keep my ear tuned for the throaty melody.