Ok..so we're still working the Bullhorn or Megaphone pattern; we have a major downtrend and a minor down trend, which is not ideal for entries right off the bat. The minor downtrend is pretty extended already, which sets up the potential for another mad buying spree, ala Friday, once those levels are reached. We look to open under yesterdays low; which generally resolves in two ways: 1.) the possibility of a Trend Day, especially if the gap is 15 or more points, or 2.) an attempt to get back into yesterdays range. Given the amount of selling yesterday and overnight, I would suspect #2. The Megaphone support is down around 36, which is completely within range today...and a ripe place for a bounce. Remember, if this pattern plays out, ultimately that lower line will give way to a large move to the downside.
If the gap is under 15 points, I will expect temporary support around 55-58, with an attempt for a gap fill which coincides closely with yesterdays low, so lets say 68. We have todays' center at 64.5 in the way. Momo at test of Yesterlow can push us up to test last nights high of 73.5. As I type, the VWAP at 61.5 is in the way to get to a gap fill, so there may be some selling at open down to the 55-58 zone for a bounce. It can go to Fridays low, or to the megaphone line at 34. Thats for a bit of a normal range day. What may bode for a trend day is that last night we broke an uptrend line up around 67, that goes back to July 5th...and have traded a good bit below "support-to-the-left, which , for me anyway, validates the break. Generally, a trendline break this likes to be tested with a kissback to the underside of the trendline. But considering we are under the 200 daily, and have broken a 6+week trendline..and traded below "left-support"...may be sending a negative message. Consumer sentiment will play at 10:00...I think you can see consumer sentiment in the charts. I'm thinking a trend day will take us into the teens. There will be a very interesting dynamic around Friday's low, should we get there, with the broken trendline-sub 200 concept playing against the hellacious buying/bounce at Fridays's lows. Fear-Greed tension at it's best.
So thats pretty much my pre-market idea for either a normal range day or a trend day...I don't think a tight choppy range bound day is in order...but then again...time will tell :)
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