My main intent here is to document my trading, and to illustrate how *I* think about the market in relation to potential in the coming days' trade. What I see is probably the most valuable stuff here, for me, anyway, is the pre-market rap. I wake up, have a cup of coffee...look at charts and just start typing what I see, without alot of bias or thinking back and forth. Coming from 6 hours of dwelling in sleep/subconscious mode..I actually really trust alot of this stuff as it comes to me, as it's close to a great resource (subconscious mind); and my little monkey mind is still groggy and doesn't get in the way, until later.
Following someones trades is about as tough as taking them on your own..you really need a reason (price action around levels), a target, and a stop you are entirely comfortable with. All of which are tough for me to post as I'm trading, which makes the pre-market stuff most important, because it's done in a peaceful state..not in the heat of battle.
I used to scoff at a trader who would post a plan of possibilities in both directions, then at the end of the day, cherry pick his early plan, to what I thought was to make himself look brilliant. Whatever his intent, I am going to start doing it more, as a means to re-enforce key concepts. Just about every morning, my subconscious mind throws some very important keywords out, and my challenge is to remember them at the right time during the day. Guess what? I write them, and sometimes forget them when I get focused and things are hot. This is my nemesis. For example yesterday: "NR7, possible trend day." Doesn't get any sweeter than that...but I got stuck on another idea. So the really important thing for you to do if your following along, is 1.) Filter my comments with your understanding/beliefs, and 2.) watch carefully if I am *walking my talk*, i.e. trading in accordance with what I laid out for myself pre-market. If I am not...you should know that there is a good possibility monkey-mind is in the drivers seat, and my trading is suspect. Yesterday, for example, my shorts below the possible right shoulder, tho early...made sense. But when I continued to short, after clearly stating early that that pattern was possibly good as long as the right shoulder remains unviolated...above the right shoulder...then there's a red flag for you. And for me.
The caveat to this, is that sometimes I'll have a reason that is sound that "came to me" as the day develops...these are generally crapshoots, unless I have three good reasons. I don't trust the ideas that come to me after I'm long awake anywhere near as much as the ones I do upon rising in the morning, tho I will act on them...and identifying these times is my current challenge, to get to a place I want to be when I'm trading.
Every traders biggest task in the Market is to see it as it is...not as they want it to be. We all have ideas, even in life in general, and then we look for more ideas to support the first idea...and build either a reasonably accurate construct of reality...or a total illusion. It's partially about the human mind needing to be "right".
In light of this, Calling the Market is generally considered a fools game. But developing a reasonable plan is not. I know from my surfing days, that if I'm at a certain beach break with a 6' swell coming from the southwest, and the tide is going out, the odds are good it's going to be breaking left, and if I try and go right...I'm going to get hammered. Throw in a coral reef 2' under water, and the consequences amp up.
Now it can certainly break right occasionally, and I can see those develop as I'm floating out there...and act accordingly. But trying to force the Market into your concept is like trying to make the ocean behave a certain way....just don't work...lol. Surfing is a great analogy for trading...maybe I'll do a post around it this weekend.
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