Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Wednesday: ISM Mfg Index and Construction spending @ 10:00

Once again, Big DownTrend, *Little* Rally: Good shorting opportunity, until proven different. Big run-up overnight, which will be a happy surprise to the Market and incentive to take profit at open...depending on how close to the overnight high we open. If we open down a bit, there will be those who will wait to see if we can test or exceed the overnight high. I'm expecting price to hold at open around 80-85, which coincides with Pivot R1 and the VWAP, for a bounce and a run back at the highs.
Chart shows general levels I want to be either putting positions on or taking them off for the near future.
So we open over yesterday's high which means 1.) Trend Day possible if +15 or 2.) A return to Yesterday's range. Since only about  2 out of 14 days are trend day's, odd's say we will have a relatively normal average range day....depending on size of gap. We have strong downtrend-line resistance around 98...and it would take some good trading over 1800 to give the "all-clear" to a possible trendline break/trend change to the upside, and possible trend day.There is also a nice little rising wedge on the 60 min chart. Possible range on the day could be from 1805 to 1761; I'll be looking to short close to the overnight high, or ideally around 99 with one more little thrust up, all dependent on price action at those levels.
Targets to the downside:
Gap Fill              73.25
Pivot                  69.75
YesterCenter      68
The Volume Value area for the week is around 74..so I'm expecting support around 73.5, which means a gap fill and possibly another run at the highs.
96.25 is an 80% trade to the upside
69 is an 80% trade to the downside
Usually it's one or the other...today I suspect we may hit them both.

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