I discounted a Trend Day this morning based on odds, vs.running down a check list. That was plain stoopid. Usually, one of the first things on my list in the morning is to check for what I call, "Perfect Storm"
conditions: possible trend day. For some reason, I had it stuck in my head we were in for a normal range day. I also missed the NR7 indicator on the Daily, which generally points to a larger move in the next day or two. That won't happen again. The chart shows some hindsight "obvious" tells what we were in for today, that were visible pre-market.
So again, as re-enforcement:
There are basically three kinds of trading days.
1. Normal Range day where you can count on tests and measurable probes a bit beyond the previous day's high or low, and you can use the average daily range, or percentage thereof, to your advantage.
2. Chop fests, where you stay within the previous days range, usually characterized by price being trapped between two significant moving averages from either a higher or a daily time frame, OR price being stuck around a time-honored Volume Value Area. Smaller range days occur much more frequently in an uptrend.
3. Trend days, averaging about one every seven trading days, but not necessarily *every* seven days. About 3 a month. Good idea to keep a running tab on them to see when one may be, "due".
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